PCB

经济危机下的PCB行业前景分析


一、PCB行业现在面临的问题以及一些企业的解决办法
  

  我国PCB(印制电路板)行业在近几年取得飞速发展,中国PCB产值的快速增长已经成为全球PCB产业发展的重要推动力。尽管如此,国内PCB产业的发展还存在很多问题有待解决,尤其体现在环保和标准方面。
       
  根据中国印制电路行业协会(CPCA)信息部的统计资料,中国PCB2007年产量为1.5亿平方米,产值达到155亿美元(按1美元兑7.50元人民币的汇率计算)。海关总署的数据显示,中国PCB2007年进出口总额达到203.7亿美元,逆差12.3亿美元。2007年,中国印制电路板产量占全球产量比例已近30%。


(一)、环保问题


  很多PCB厂家对此耿耿于怀,觉得政府这样的做法可能不是很妥当。但是不可否认PCB行业的对环境污染情况略显严重。但是从另外一个角度讲,中国PCB行业并不是污染的最严重的行业,却成为环保法令受害最严重的行业。本人认为国家的一些政策是无可厚非的。国家制定政策是从一个更高的角度讲。所以在这样的前提下,必然有少数人的利益将不被顾及到。在深圳市线路板行业协会上,辛国胜先生讲道:“我国现在的政策是注重效率,兼顾公平。”因此国家的政策有些灵活适用的地方。从CPCA的统计资料来看,我国PCB行业虽然进出口总额达到一个很高的数字,但是在贸易过程中,我国处于很明显的逆差。处于逆差的行业还有很严重的污染问题,政府还会不抑制吗?


  环保问题现在并不是一个时髦的而是一个很重要的问题,目前的全球生态产业发展趋势并非空穴来风,继欧盟RoHs、WEEE、REACH指令先后颁布,中国政府也发布了《电子信息产品污染防治管理办法》(中国RoHS),将“节能、减排、降耗、增效”作为首要目标,实施从紧的货币政策,使加工贸易生产的成本优势进一步弱化。所以从这个角度讲,环保的问题是我国PCB行业必然要不能避免的一项成本投入。而其中的方法,就八仙过海各显神通了。


(二)、原材料成本提高


  原材料成本提高的直接原因是需求增大。而需求增大必然说明PCB行业在一段的时期内有很丰厚的利润。因此现在PCB行业中存在很多恶意竞争者。在丰厚的利润的诱导下,进入PCB行业,导致一些原材料的价格上涨。而从根本原因上说,原材料价格的上涨也是由于国家能源资源的消耗让原材料变得稀缺。这个问题的解决办法是让很多人头疼的,无论是执政者,还是厂家或者是普通老百姓。

  2008年第一季度我们许多企业不仅是PCB也包括CCL(覆铜箔电子基板),出现产值产量增加,利润却大幅下滑的现象,而且这个现象比较普遍,问题很严重。就是一个很能说明问题的例子。

(三)、新出台的劳动法

 很多老板聚在一起唠叨,新出台的劳动法让很多厂家面临很困难的局面,有的厂家甚至面临倒闭,合理吗?记住,国家制定政策永远是朝着大多数人的。新出台的劳动法就是这样。这个问题也是一个很敏感的问题,它必然要消除一部分人的利益来补偿另外一部分人。从一个客观的角度讲,新劳动法的出台是必然的也是合理的。国家必须制定政策来缓和矛盾。而不能叫这个国家分为两部分人。而且中国人向来都有杀富济贫的观念。2008年以来我国出现了很多百姓围攻政府的事件,而背后的黑幕就是一些不法经营者和政府的贪官勾结在一起,严重损害了劳动人民的利益。矛盾激化到百姓围攻政府,谁的过错是很明了的。

(四)、经济危机带来的行业寒冬

  经济危机中国的经济带来的冲击是很大的,不只是PCB行业。与其说是经济危机致使一些企业面临倒闭或者已经倒闭。倒不如说经济危机只不过是未尾的一棍子。而致使中国PCB行业面临地震的根本原因则是由于行业本身的诟病,如果一些企业现在不从自身上下功夫解决问题而是朝着劳动法等等因素发牢骚则是很愚蠢的选择。
  想一想为什么PCB行业会面临那么一大堆严重的问题呢?诸如环保、诸如原材料涨价等等。

  PCB行业本身就有原材料稀缺污染严重的问题,而以前的PCB行业大多数都在日本和欧美等发达国家。他们认识到这些问题并很早就出台相关法令。并且恶意的将这些污染严重的企业都转移到中国。包括日本和台湾等地方遇到中国大陆出台的相关法令,其实对这些企业来说,他们受到的则是更严厉的法令问责。然而他们还是留在中国或者搬去越南印度等比较落后的地方。

  综上所述,中国PCB行业面临的除经融危机之外的更多问题本身企业正规化,很多老板抱着挣点钱再说的心态做企业而不是怎么样做好一个企业的心态来真正的做一个企业。所以中国山寨企业成为山寨大军。所以中国才成为世界工厂。

二、厂家何去何从


  受经济危机的影响,中国各行业都将在未来6到8个月之间很少有生意做。但是在这期间的各厂家都有不同的做法,很多的人都没有订单的情况下,有些企业开始降价竞争。目的是求生存。然而精明的业者会发现这次经济危机并不只是危机。而是行业洗牌。行业洗牌是一个博弈论的名词。是说目前的游戏规则已经不在适应,而新的规则将随着新的庄家开始坐庄开始控制市场。怎么预测这些新的规则呢?一些很明显的市场信号已经表明了,节能、减排、降耗、提高效率。然而在一轮严重的经济危机的寒冬萧杀过之后,谁能在这四点上做到较好?自然是经济厚盾强硬的企业。之前利润丰厚的小企业如果在经济危机过后还没有解决这些问题,恐怕就多了一个障碍——大企业的压制了。

  目前深圳有一些企业的选择是抱团过冬、企业合并、裁员减薪。估计对于目前我国PCB行业的最容易接受也是最有效的办法就是抱团过冬了。
 

The economic crisis under the PCBindustry analysis of the prospects

一, PCB industry is now faced with the problem, as well as a numberof enterprise solutions


China's PCB (printed circuit board) industry in recent yearsachieved rapid development, China's PCB production value of therapid growth of the global PCB industry has become an importantdriving force. Nevertheless, domestic PCB industry there are stillmany problems to be resolved, especially in environmentalprotection and standards.


According to the China Printed Circuit Association (CPCA)Information Department of Statistics, China's annual output PCB2007to 150,000,000 square meters, the output value reached15,500,000,000 U.S. dollars (1 U.S. dollar 7.50 yuan's exchangerate). The General Administration of Customs show that China Importand Export PCB2007 total 20,370,000,000 U.S. dollars, a deficit of1,230,000,000 U.S. dollars. In 2007, China printed circuit boardproduction ratio of total global output to nearly 30%.


(1), environmental issues


PCB manufacturers have a lot of heart, feel that such an approachmay not be very appropriate. But it can not be denied to the PCBindustry with some serious environmental pollution. But fromanother perspective, China's PCB industry is not the most seriouspollution of the industry, have become victims of the worst act ofenvironmental protection industries. I think some of the nationalpolicy is understandable. National policy-making from a higherperspective. Therefore, such a premise, there is bound to theinterests of a small number of people will not be taken intoaccount. Shenzhen City in the PCB Industry Association, Mr. ShinKook-sheng said: "Our current policy is to pay attention toefficiency with due consideration to fairness." Therefore, thestate some flexibility in the application of the policy. CPCA fromthe statistics, China's PCB industry Although the total import andexport volume reached a very high figure, but in the course oftrade, China is obviously the deficit. The trade deficit is stillvery serious pollution, the Government will not inhibit it?


Environmental issues are not a fashionable but a very importantissue, the current global trend of eco-industrial development isnot groundless, following the European RoHs, WEEE, REACH directivehas enacted the Chinese government also issued a "pollutionprevention and control of electronic information productsmanagement "(China RoHS)," energy-saving, emission reduction,energy, efficiency, "as a primary objective of the implementationof tight monetary policy, so that the processing trade productioncost advantage of further weakening. So from this perspective, theissue of environmental protection in China's PCB industry is boundto be an unavoidable cost of inputs. And one way to Gexianshentongthe Eight Immortals crossing the sea.


(2), raising the cost of raw materials


Raising the cost of raw materials as a direct result of increaseddemand. And that will certainly increase the demand for PCBindustry for some period of time, there are huge profits. PCBindustry now exists in a lot of malicious competitors. In the hugeprofits under the induction into the PCB industry, resulting in anumber of raw materials prices. The fundamental reason, the pricesof raw materials is also due to the country's energy consumption sothat resources become scarce raw materials. The solution to thisproblem is to make a lot of people headaches, whether in power orfactory or the general public.

In the first quarter of 2008, many of our enterprises is not only aPCB including CCL (Copper Clad electronic substrate), appears toincrease production output value, profits are declining sharply,but the more common phenomenon, a very serious problem. Is a casein point.

(3), the introduction of the new labor law

Many employers nagging together, the introduction of the new laborlaw so that many manufacturers are facing a very difficultsituation, and some manufacturers even on the verge of closure,reasonable? Keep in mind that the national policy-making willalways be moving in the majority. The introduction of the new laborlaw is the case. This is a very sensitive issue, it is bound to bea part of the elimination of the interests of the other tocompensate for some people. From an objective point of view, theintroduction of the new labor law is necessary is reasonable.States need to develop policies to ease the conflict. The name ofthis country can not be divided into two parts people. And theChinese people have always been Shafujipin concept. Since 2008,there were a lot of our people besieged the Government of theincident, and some inside stories behind the illegal operators andthe government of collusion with corrupt officials, seriouslydamaging the interests of working people. Contradictions to thebesieged people government, whose fault it is very clear.

(4), the economic crisis brought about by the cold winterindustries

The economic crisis brought about by China's economic impact isgreat, not just PCB industry. Not so much the economic crisis facedby some enterprises have closed down or been closed down. Ratherthe economic crisis is just one of the last stick. China PCBindustry and led to face the root cause of the earthquake is due tothe criticism of the industry itself, if some companies do not ownefforts to solve the problem but toward the labor law, and soprofusely factor is very foolish choice.
Why think about PCB industry will be faced with so many seriousproblems? Such as environmental protection, such as raw materialsprices and so on.

PCB industry itself, there is scarcity of raw materials, seriouspollution problems, and most of the previous PCB industry in Japanand Europe and the United States and other developed countries.They recognized these problems and early introduction of relatedlaws. And malicious contamination of these enterprises have shiftedto China. Including Japan and Taiwan, mainland China shouldencounter the introduction of relevant laws, in fact, theseenterprises, they are subject to more stringent accountability act.However, they still remain in China or Vietnam and India to movebackward, and so on.

To sum up, China's PCB industry faced by the financial crisis inaddition to more problems other than their own enterprisestandardization, many business owners say Zheng Dianqian with thementality of doing business rather than Zenmeyangzuo a goodbusiness to the real state of mind A business. Chinese enterpriseshave become so small and labor-force cottage. Therefore, Chinabecame the world's factory. 

二 manufacturers go from here


By the economic crisis, the Chinese industry will be in the next6-8 months between the business doing very little. But in themeantime the various manufacturers have different approaches to alot of people do not have orders, some companies started to pricecompetition. The purpose is to survive. However, smart businesseswill find that the economic crisis is not just a crisis. Butindustry reshuffle. Industry reshuffle is a game of the term. Thatthe current rules of the game no longer adapt to the new rules willstart making arrangements with the new Zuozhuang began to controlthe market. Predict how these new rules? Obviously some of themarket has made it clear signal, energy saving, emission reduction,reducing consumption and improve efficiency. However, in a seriouseconomic crisis in winter too Xiao Sha, who in the last 4:00 to doit the best? Natural thick shield the economy is tough business.Before the lucrative small business if the economic crisis has notsolve these problems, I am afraid that on a number of obstacles -the suppression of large enterprises.

Shenzhen currently has a number of enterprises is the choice ofBaotuan winter, mergers, layoffs and wage cuts. At present, Chinais estimated that for the most receptive to the PCB industry is themost effective way Baotuan the winter.
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